基金观察：2026年市场关键变量有哪些？

Core Insights - The key variables influencing A-shares in 2026 will be profitability, liquidity, and policy [2][3] - The recovery of the AI industry and energy storage sectors is leading in profit restoration compared to other industries [2] - The focus will be on which industries can show significant profit recovery and inflection points in 2026 [2] Profitability and Economic Indicators - Profitability will become a focal point in 2026, with expectations of improvement in the real economy and listed companies' earnings [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a critical indicator to watch, with expectations that it may turn positive by the second half of 2026, signaling potential earnings improvement for companies [3] Policy Environment - Domestic macro policies will focus on four main areas: stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, promoting transformation, and preventing risks [4] - Fiscal policies will emphasize targeted efforts in new infrastructure, energy transition, and transportation hubs, supported by special bonds [4] - Monetary policy will maintain overall looseness while ensuring structural precision, aiming to lower financing costs for enterprises and households [4] International Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a looser monetary policy is expected to weaken the dollar, which could enhance global liquidity and risk appetite [5] - A weaker dollar may lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Chinese capital market, potentially boosting A-share valuations [5] - The relationship between the Fed's rate cuts and the dollar's performance warrants further analysis [5]