2026年大宗商品逻辑生变！瑞银：“情绪博弈”消退，主导权将回归基本面

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market has become the focal point of the commodities sector, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and geopolitical risk, with gold prices reaching an all-time high [2] - Silver's performance has been particularly remarkable, with a monthly increase marking the highest since 1979 and a weekly rise of 16.08% [2] - UBS warns that the current price surge is largely driven by sentiment and technical momentum rather than solid industry fundamentals, indicating potential risks of price corrections as market sentiment normalizes [2] Group 2: Energy and Industrial Metals - The energy market shows mixed performance, with crude oil prices fluctuating around $58 per barrel, supported by U.S. actions against Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but limited by ample global supply [3] - UBS notes that the U.S. government prefers to manage inflation through low oil prices, establishing an "invisible floor" for oil prices around $50 [3] - Industrial metals maintain high prices due to optimistic market sentiment regarding Chinese economic support policies and strong demand for metals like copper and aluminum in green energy infrastructure [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - The agricultural market faces challenges from South American weather and geopolitical risks, with corn and soybean prices initially boosted by Chinese demand but later pressured by farmer sell-offs [4] - A significant warning is that soybean export volumes have decreased by nearly one-third year-on-year, which may impact planting decisions for 2026 [4] - In contrast, corn exports have surged by 30% year-on-year, becoming a highlight in the grain market, while the livestock sector remains robust for cattle but faces downward pressure in the pork market due to increased supply [4] Group 4: Market Outlook for 2026 - As the new year approaches, market liquidity is expected to remain low, amplifying the impact of any sudden news on prices [5] - The current commodities market is at a critical juncture, with precious metals experiencing strong momentum but facing valuation challenges, while energy and agricultural markets seek new pricing logic amid policy interventions and climate variability [5] - For 2026, a return to fundamentals may replace the current sentiment-driven trading, becoming the main theme in the market [5]