洞察2025｜利率压降下阵痛明显，消金业加大自营保规模

Core Insights - The consumer finance industry is undergoing a deep transformation driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics, particularly with the implementation of new lending regulations starting October 1, 2025, which aim to reduce reliance on traffic and enhance self-risk control capabilities [1][3][4] Regulatory Changes - The new lending regulations include a cap on comprehensive financing costs at 24%, which disrupts the long-standing profit model based on "interest and fee separation" [3][4] - The regulations require transparency in cooperation between banks and consumer finance institutions, mandating full disclosure of fees and linking profit-sharing to loan recovery progress [3][4] - A new guideline for the micro-lending industry aims to reduce comprehensive financing costs to within four times the one-year LPR by the end of 2027, further pressuring the consumer finance sector [4] Industry Challenges - The pressure from reduced interest rate caps, including a recent adjustment to a 20% cap for new loans, poses significant challenges to institutions, particularly those relying on high-interest rates to cover risks [3][4] - The tightening of regulations on asset-backed securities (ABS) and financial bond issuance is expected to increase overall funding costs, complicating self-acquisition and risk control for consumer finance companies [4][5] Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus from scale-driven growth to enhancing asset quality and compliance, marking a transition from a "scale competition" to a "core capability competition" [4][6] - Institutions are prioritizing self-acquisition channels and risk control capabilities, reducing dependence on external platforms, and upgrading risk management systems [7][8] - The industry is moving towards a high-quality development phase characterized by differentiated competition and refined customer and risk management operations [9][10] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a widening gap between leading and smaller institutions, reinforcing a "winner-takes-all" effect [8][9] - Companies are likely to enhance their self-acquisition channels and focus on specific customer segments, such as young professionals and green consumers, while leveraging technology for improved risk management [9][10] - The future direction of the industry will emphasize intelligent, scenario-based, and ecological development, with a focus on building sustainable business models amid stringent regulatory environments [10][11]