洞察2025｜降息扩围、长端离场！低息时代下银行揽存分化

Group 1 - The core adjustment wave in 2025 focuses on "comprehensive interest rate cuts" and the exit of long-term products, leading to a restructuring of the bank deposit market [1][10] - Major state-owned banks initiated the interest rate cuts, with a full coverage of the "interest rate reduction" category by small and medium-sized banks following suit, resulting in a more balanced market interest rate structure [3][4] - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident as funds shift towards wealth management, precious metals, and insurance due to declining deposit rates and the disappearance of long-term yield advantages [1][9] Group 2 - In May 2025, six major state-owned banks lowered their deposit rates, with a reduction of 5 basis points for demand deposits and up to 25 basis points for long-term deposits [3][4] - Small and medium-sized banks have shifted their interest rate reduction logic to cover all categories, with some banks reducing rates by up to 80 basis points, leading to a gradual equilibrium in the deposit market [4][5] - The exit of long-term deposit products is primarily driven by smaller banks, with some banks removing 5-year term deposits from their offerings entirely [4][5] Group 3 - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins due to structural changes in financing demand and declining loan rates has pressured banks to lower deposit costs and optimize their liability structures [7][10] - The current net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and rural commercial banks showing varying margins [7] - Banks are expected to enhance their asset allocation and increase the proportion of high-yield assets to improve returns while managing interest rate risks through various financial tools [5][7] Group 4 - The "deposit migration" trend is expected to continue into 2026, driven by the persistent low interest rate environment and the ongoing search for higher returns by depositors [9][10] - The wealth management market has become a primary destination for funds, with the scale of existing wealth management products reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in residents' investment mindset [9] - Different types of banks will focus on varying strategies, with state-owned banks likely emphasizing wealth management to counter cost pressures, while smaller banks may adjust deposit rates more frequently to attract funds [10]