STARTRADER：FOMC纪要前夕，纽元兑美元随美元疲软走高

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is experiencing slight appreciation against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.5805, amid a weaker overall performance of the USD due to market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's future policy path, particularly expectations of potential rate cuts in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve completed its third and final rate cut of the year in December, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% to 3.75% [3]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that future monetary policy will heavily depend on economic data, particularly inflation trends and labor market changes, indicating no immediate commitment to a clear easing path [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate a 16.1% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's January meeting, reflecting some market positioning for a longer-term rate downcycle [4]. - The upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes is seen as a key short-term observation point for investors to gauge the decision-makers' views on inflation, economic growth, and future rate adjustments [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data shows some resilience, with November pending home sales increasing by 3.3%, surpassing the revised October figure of 2.4% and exceeding market expectations of 1.0% [4]. - This data marks the highest level since February 2023, alleviating some concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, although its positive impact on the USD remains limited [4]. Group 4: New Zealand Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to have its rate cut cycle nearing an end, following a 25 basis point reduction to 2.25% in November, with future adjustments dependent on economic growth and inflation outlook [5]. - This cautious policy stance has contributed to the relative stability of the NZD among major currencies [5].