startrader：美联储暂停加息，市场静候下一步信号？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has completed its policy interest rate adjustments this month and has signaled a pause in further adjustments [1][3] - The upcoming meeting minutes will be crucial for the market to assess the duration of the policy pause and will provide key references for future market expectations [1][3] - Since September, the Federal Reserve has adjusted the policy interest rate three times, each by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the rate range to 3.5% to 3.75% [1] Group 2 - In the December policy statement and economic forecast, the Federal Reserve has adopted a "wait-and-see" attitude, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the adjustments since September have brought the stance to a reasonable neutral estimate [3] - Officials believe that the three consecutive adjustments have brought the policy stance close to a neutral level that neither suppresses nor stimulates demand [3] - There are significant differences among officials regarding future inflation pressures and economic weakness risks, making the neutral level an ideal point for observing economic conditions [3] Group 3 - Investors are particularly focused on the duration of the policy pause, with the minutes likely reflecting differing views among officials regarding inflation concerns and labor market conditions [4] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may maintain the pause until June of next year, when inflation-related signals may emerge to provide clear guidance for future policy direction [4] - The core value of the meeting minutes lies in clearly presenting the internal policy consensus and divergences within the Federal Reserve, offering authoritative insights for the market to interpret the underlying logic of the policy pause [4]