Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-30 05:57Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of national subsidies recovery will enhance the cash flow value of the environmental protection sector, particularly in the waste incineration segment, which is expected to see improved cash flow and dividend potential due to reduced capital expenditures and increased operational cash flow [1][2]. Group 1: National Subsidy Recovery - The average account period for national subsidies in waste incineration enterprises remains stable at around two years, with a slowdown in the growth of outstanding payments [2]. - The national subsidy recovery rate has significantly accelerated in Q3 2025, improving cash flow and reversing credit impairment losses [2]. - The estimated national subsidy recovery rate for enterprises in Q1-Q3 2025 is approximately 40% to 199%, with an average of about 89%, a notable increase from the 39% average in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Subsidy Fund - The renewable energy development fund's income is expected to achieve a balance around 2025, with historical outstanding payments projected to reach a maximum of 4,355 billion yuan [3]. - The fund's income has been increasing annually, while expenditures have reached their limit due to the decline in benchmark electricity prices and the acceleration of new energy installations [3]. Group 3: Dividend Potential Calculation - The potential for dividends in the waste incineration sector is projected to increase from 114% to 141% as capital expenditures decrease to maintenance levels and the national subsidy recovery rate improves from 40% to 100% [4].