Novo Nordisk's 'long game' on weight loss drugs sparks hope in science, but the Street is impatient

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in stock price and increased competition in the GLP-1 drug market, leading to a major leadership shakeup and investor skepticism about its growth potential [1][18]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped 50% year-to-date, marking its worst performance since listing on Nasdaq Copenhagen over three decades ago, with shares trading around 320 Danish kroner compared to over 1,000 kroner at its peak in mid-2024 [18][19]. - The company is experiencing pressure from competitors like Eli Lilly, which has introduced rival drugs, and from compounding pharmacies producing cheaper versions of semaglutide [19][25]. - Despite the challenges, Goldman Sachs analysts maintain a "Buy" rating on Novo Nordisk, citing potential volume opportunities in the evolving obesity market [26]. Group 2: Drug Development and Potential Benefits - Semaglutide, marketed as Ozempic and Wegovy, is a GLP-1 receptor agonist initially developed for diabetes management but has gained popularity for its weight-loss properties, generating billions in annual revenue for Novo Nordisk [3]. - The U.S. FDA has approved semaglutide for various conditions, including liver disease and reducing cardiovascular risks in overweight individuals [4]. - Emerging research suggests that GLP-1 drugs may have additional benefits, such as reducing cravings for food, alcohol, and drugs by affecting the brain's reward pathways [6][9]. Group 3: Research and Clinical Trials - Observational studies indicate that semaglutide may help manage excessive cravings and could be effective in treating conditions like alcohol use disorder, with clinical trials showing reduced alcohol consumption in patients [10][12]. - A recent clinical trial aimed at assessing semaglutide's impact on Alzheimer's disease did not meet its primary goal, leading to disappointment among investors, but some experts believe the trial provided valuable insights for future research [12][15]. - There is ongoing interest in exploring semaglutide's effects on brain functions and its potential as a preventative therapy for cognitive decline [7][16].