人民币，破7！创两年半来新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily attributed to a weaker US dollar and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign capital inflows, rather than indicating the start of a new appreciation cycle [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - On December 30, 2025, the onshore RMB reached a high of 6.9960 against the US dollar, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since May 17, 2023 [1] - The offshore RMB also surpassed the 7.0 threshold on December 25, marking the first occurrence in 15 months [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Market analysts, including the chief economist at China Merchants Bank, suggest that the recent RMB appreciation is driven by short-term favorable factors and does not signify the beginning of a new appreciation cycle [1] - The future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate is expected to be influenced by three main factors: the relative strength of economic recovery in China and the US, trends in US dollar interest rates and exchange rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships alongside domestic economic recovery [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is advised not to overly focus on specific exchange rate levels or develop linear expectations of unilateral appreciation or depreciation, as a two-way fluctuation in the exchange rate is likely to become the norm [1]