特朗普关税风暴、美以伊中东“大乱斗”、美联储“换帅”风云......一文盘点2025年全球十大宏观事件

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration in 2025 significantly disrupted the post-war multilateral trade system, transforming tariffs from temporary trade relief measures into a normalized tool for negotiation [2][5] - The tariffs imposed varied widely by country, with the UK and Australia facing a 10% baseline tariff, while countries like Vietnam and Cambodia faced punitive tariffs as high as 46% and 49% respectively [2][5] - The policy has led to a shift from global multilateral trade to regional cooperation and bilateral agreements, indicating a profound adjustment in global trade dynamics [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated in 2025, significantly impacting global financial markets, triggered by the breakdown of US-Iran nuclear negotiations [6][7] - The military actions taken by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities resulted in a sharp decline in US stock indices and a surge in oil prices, reflecting heightened market volatility due to geopolitical tensions [7][9] - The subsequent military response from the US and the eventual ceasefire highlighted the complex interplay of military and economic factors in shaping market reactions [9] Group 3: Economic Legislation - The "Big Beautiful Act" signed by Trump is projected to increase US debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, permanently extending tax cuts and significantly altering social welfare programs [10][12] - The act's provisions include substantial tax changes and cuts to healthcare programs, which are expected to have long-term implications for the US economy and public health insurance coverage [12][13] - Critics, including prominent figures like Elon Musk, argue that the act could lead to significant job losses and negatively impact future industries, particularly in renewable energy [14] Group 4: Government Shutdown - The US government experienced its longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, due to a budget impasse between the two parties, which had significant repercussions on federal operations and economic data releases [15][16] - The shutdown affected approximately 750,000 federal employees and led to delays in critical economic indicators, which could influence monetary policy decisions [16] Group 5: Monetary Policy Divergence - In 2025, the Federal Reserve faced unprecedented challenges to its independence, with political pressures influencing monetary policy decisions, including discussions about future leadership [22] - A historical divergence in global monetary policy emerged, with the Fed continuing to lower interest rates while other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan, began to raise rates, reshaping asset pricing globally [23][24] - The Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates to 0.75% marked a significant shift in its monetary policy, raising concerns about potential liquidity shocks in global markets [25][26] Group 6: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a historic surge, with gold prices surpassing $4,500, driven by geopolitical risks, supply shortages, and strong investment demand [28][33] - Silver and other precious metals also saw significant price increases, indicating a broader trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [28][33] - The decline of the US dollar, which fell nearly 10% in 2025, further fueled the rise in precious metals, reflecting a profound shift in the global financial landscape [33][36]