国盛证券：生猪去化趋势不改 择机参与板块配置

Group 1: Swine Industry - Current pig prices remain low, with no significant rebound before the winter solstice, but an unexpected increase is anticipated post-holiday, leading to improved market sentiment as the peak season approaches [1] - The report suggests that the rebound in spot prices may last until the pre-Spring Festival stocking period, with low participation from the stock market [1] - Investors are advised to focus on opportunities in companies with low-cost structures during the loss phase, as current valuations are still relatively low [1] Group 2: Mushroom Industry - Prices for enoki mushrooms remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound, while the release period for cordyceps, a key new product, is approaching, indicating strong performance potential [1] Group 3: Livestock and Poultry - In the yellow feathered chicken sector, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are recommended, with a focus on Lihua Co [3] - White feathered chicken prices are projected to rise, with the price of broilers at 7.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 8.8% from the previous month, and chicken products averaging 9.3 yuan/kg, up 3.9% [3] - Attention is drawn to the situation of avian influenza in Europe, with potential investment in companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Industries [3] Group 4: Agricultural Planting - The industry shows a clear trend of variety replacement, with breakthroughs in dense planting growth, making related stocks worth monitoring [4] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is underway, with future confirmations of actual transaction prices and profit distribution expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [4] Group 5: Pet Industry - The Chinese pet retail conference revealed that the total pet consumption scale for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be 108.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with an expected total sales of 154.5-160 billion yuan for the year [5] - The industry growth trend remains positive, with ongoing optimism for domestic substitution and premiumization trends, highlighting companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [5]