IMI锐评｜如何理解人民币汇率的阶段性升值？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, indicating a phase of strengthening for the RMB against the USD driven by multiple factors including adjustments in Federal Reserve policy, fluctuations in the USD index, and improvements in domestic policy expectations [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - In 2025, the RMB exhibited a "first suppressed then rising" trend, with a significant depreciation in early months due to external pressures, followed by a recovery starting in May, leading to a 3.76% appreciation in the offshore RMB by the end of November [2] - The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.0 against the USD on December 25, marking a significant recovery from a low of 7.40 earlier in the year [2] Group 2: Drivers of RMB Appreciation - Four main factors driving the RMB's recent strength include: 1. Domestic economic resilience with a growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, providing fundamental support for the exchange rate [4] 2. A shift in macroeconomic narrative towards positive developments in technology and innovation, leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets [4] 3. A weakening USD due to concerns over U.S. economic prospects and fiscal sustainability, which has supported the RMB [5] 4. Improved Sino-U.S. trade relations following negotiations that led to reduced tariffs and eased market tensions [4] Group 3: Internal Foundations for RMB Strength - The RMB's potential for moderate appreciation is supported by a favorable economic growth outlook, with expectations of GDP growth above 4% in the coming years, contrasting with the U.S. growth rate below 3% [8] - Rising household incomes and structural reforms aimed at achieving common prosperity are expected to enhance the RMB's real exchange rate [9] - A sustained current account surplus, driven by strong goods trade, is anticipated to provide ongoing support for RMB appreciation [10] Group 4: Policy Management of RMB Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate, emphasizing the prevention of excessive fluctuations while allowing for a reasonable appreciation [11] - The PBOC's approach includes using counter-cyclical factors to stabilize the exchange rate amid external pressures, ensuring that the RMB remains within a reasonable range [7] Group 5: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - Factors favoring RMB appreciation include potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could weaken the USD [13] - The ongoing stabilization of Sino-U.S. trade relations and the strengthening of the Chinese economy are expected to support the RMB's upward trajectory [14] - The RMB is projected to fluctuate between 6.8 and 7.2 against the USD in 2026, with a potential for slight appreciation due to favorable internal and external conditions [18][19]