智谱冲击“大模型第一股”，IPO补血求生！要跳出“高级外包”的陷阱，摆脱大厂围剿

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhipu has officially launched its IPO, aiming to become the "first stock of global large models," marking a significant milestone for both itself and the domestic large model industry, transitioning from "money-burning R&D" to "capital market validation" [2][3]. Industry Overview - The IPO of Zhipu signifies the beginning of a "淘汰赛" (elimination round) in the domestic large model industry, with increasing competition expected as more players enter the capital market by 2026 [3]. - The AI sector has seen a significant decline in financing, with a 31.2% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025, leading to a situation where IPOs become a crucial funding channel for companies like Zhipu [9]. Financial Performance - Zhipu's revenue is projected to grow from 57.4 million yuan in 2022 to 312.4 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 130% [3][5]. - However, adjusted net losses are expected to increase from 97 million yuan in 2022 to 2.466 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a 25-fold increase in losses over three years [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhipu reported a net loss of 1.752 billion yuan, nearly matching the total loss for 2024 [5]. R&D Investment - Zhipu's cumulative R&D investment reached 4.4 billion yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with 2.195 billion yuan spent in 2024 alone [5][9]. - A significant portion of R&D costs, approximately 70%, is attributed to computing power expenses, which amounted to 1.553 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. Business Model and Market Position - The majority of Zhipu's revenue (84.8% in the first half of 2025) comes from localized deployments for B-end clients, while cloud services account for only 15.2% [6]. - Despite having a strong technical foundation, Zhipu's business efficiency is low, with an average daily revenue per employee of only 1,189 yuan, significantly lower than competitors [6][10]. - Zhipu holds a mere 6.6% market share in the domestic general large model market, which is limited when compared to major players like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent [6][10]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has shifted from a focus on talent to a "算力军备竞赛" (computing power arms race), with major companies planning substantial investments in AI infrastructure [9][10]. - Major players like Baidu and Tencent are expected to spend between 30 billion to 100 billion yuan on AI in 2025, dwarfing Zhipu's total R&D investment [9]. Future Challenges - Post-IPO, Zhipu will face increased scrutiny and competition, with quarterly performance comparisons becoming a norm [11]. - The company must quickly find a profitable business model to avoid being integrated by larger firms, similar to trends seen in the food delivery and ride-hailing industries [13][14].