十年期日债收益率创31年来最大年度涨幅！财政担忧加剧之际或成2026年市场“灰犀牛”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, leading to a significant rise in government bond yields, particularly the ten-year yield reaching 2.077%, close to its highest level since February 1999 [1][3] - The Japanese government approved a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 amounting to 18.3 trillion yen, the largest since the pandemic, with 11.7 trillion yen to be financed through new bond issuance [3] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike and indications of continued monetary tightening have contributed to rising bond yields, with the two-year yield increasing to 1.173%, up over 20% in the past month [4][3] Group 2 - The rise in Japanese bond yields is significant for global financial markets, as Japan has been a major player in the low-interest-rate environment, affecting currency arbitrage and investment flows [7] - Concerns are growing that the narrowing yield spread between Japanese and U.S. bonds could lead to a reversal of yen-based arbitrage trades, potentially impacting U.S. Treasury markets and stock valuations [7][8] - The Bank of Japan plans to slow its exit from the bond market, reducing its monthly bond purchases from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen per quarter, and will also cut government bond sales in the upcoming fiscal year [8]