合盛硅业(603260)：硅产业链龙头 行业景气有望扭转

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the domestic silicon-based new materials industry, with continuous sales growth, although profitability is at a five-year low. The industry supply-demand dynamics are expected to gradually improve in the future [1]. Investment Highlights - The rating is maintained at "Buy." Projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.12, 2.1, and 2.98 yuan, with growth rates of -92.1%, 1701.5%, and 42.1% respectively. Considering the industry average valuation and the company's leading position, a target price of 63 yuan is set based on a 30x PE for 2026 [2]. - The company is the leader in the domestic silicon-based new materials industry, covering industrial silicon, organic silicon, and polysilicon, forming a complete silicon-based industrial chain. Current industrial silicon capacity is 1.22 million tons/year, accounting for 19% of the industry, while organic silicon monomer capacity is 1.73 million tons/year, accounting for 30%, both ranking first in the industry. The main production capacity is located in resource-rich Xinjiang, with self-owned thermal power plants, establishing a cost competitive advantage [2]. - Sales continue to grow, but profitability is at a five-year low. In 2021, benefiting from significant growth in downstream photovoltaic and new energy demand, industrial silicon and organic silicon entered a boom cycle, with the company achieving record high performance. In recent years, net profit has been under pressure due to declining prices influenced by industry supply and demand, as well as increased capital expenditures and financial costs [2]. Industry Supply-Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics in the organic silicon industry are expected to gradually improve. Industrial silicon capacity is mainly distributed in the western regions, with relatively dispersed capacity, indicating a need to eliminate outdated capacity. The expansion cycle for organic silicon is nearing its end. From 2019 to 2024, China's organic silicon intermediate capacity is expected to grow rapidly from 1.51 million tons to 3.45 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17.8%. An additional 630,000 tons of capacity is expected to be added in 2024, creating significant pressure on the supply side. In the coming years, new capacity will be limited, and as demand grows, existing capacity will be gradually consumed, leading to an improvement in the industry supply-demand dynamics [3]. - The company is expanding into new fields such as photovoltaics and silicon carbide, achieving technological breakthroughs. The company covers the entire photovoltaic industrial chain, including silicon materials, components, glass, and power stations. Additionally, the company has mastered core technologies in silicon carbide, including raw material synthesis, crystal growth, substrate processing, and epitaxy. Six-inch silicon carbide substrates are in full production, with crystal yield exceeding 95% and epitaxial yield stable at over 98%. Eight-inch substrates are in small batch production, while twelve-inch substrate research and development is ongoing [3].