“十五五”中国房地产市场趋势展望-中指研究院

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the profound adjustments in China's real estate market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, transitioning from a focus on "housing for living" to stabilizing the market and promoting recovery [1][13][27] - The total sales area of newly built commercial housing during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is approximately 5.8 billion square meters, a decrease of 25% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with significant market differentiation observed [15][26] - The number of large real estate companies has continued to shrink, with 77 companies experiencing debt defaults, while the market share of central and state-owned enterprises has significantly increased [16][26] Group 2 - The development environment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will focus on high-quality development, with economic growth targeting a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, and expanding domestic demand as a core task [19][20] - The real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize, with an average annual sales area of newly built residential properties projected to remain between 70-80 million square meters from 2026 to 2030 [22][21] - Three core trends are anticipated: urban differentiation becoming the norm, the arrival of a stock era with urban renewal potential, and real estate companies transitioning to a "light and heavy" approach to enhance resilience against market cycles [24][22][21]