铂钯期货连续两日跌停 2026年走势预期分歧大

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market has experienced significant adjustments, particularly in platinum and palladium, which saw a sharp decline, reflecting short-term pressure on the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, the main contracts for platinum and palladium on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down, with declines of 13% each, marking them as the largest losers in the domestic futures market [1][2]. - Internationally, platinum prices fell by 13.71% and palladium by 15.76% overnight [1]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum futures have increased by 140%, with a volatility of 187.91%, while palladium has risen by 82.85% with a volatility of 138.37% [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in platinum and palladium is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations, particularly in the Chinese market [6]. - Retail investment demand for platinum has reached historical highs, driven by its perceived value compared to gold and its role in hedging against inflation [6]. - The recent sharp declines in prices are linked to regulatory measures that have increased trading costs and reduced speculative trading activity, leading to a liquidity crunch [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [11][12]. - There are differing opinions on the outlook for platinum and palladium in 2026, with some analysts predicting strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others foresee potential oversupply due to changing market dynamics [13][14]. - Factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, persistent inflation, and low real interest rates may support precious metal prices, although industrial demand weakness poses significant downward pressure [14].