Coupang(US:CPNG) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-30 09:09Core Viewpoint - Coupang has announced a compensation plan of up to 1.7 trillion KRW (approximately 1.17 billion USD) due to a data breach affecting 33.7 million customers, leading to a downgrade in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 2%-18% and a target price reduction from 35 USD to 28 USD, while maintaining a buy rating [1][3] Group 1: Data Breach and Compensation - The data breach incident has impacted nearly two-thirds of South Korea's population, with leaked information including names, phone numbers, email addresses, and delivery details [1] - Coupang's CEO Park Dae-jun has resigned due to the data breach, and Harold Rogers, the CEO of the U.S. parent company, will serve as the interim CEO [1] - The compensation plan will provide 50,000 KRW to each affected customer, totaling up to 1.7 trillion KRW, which represents 3% of the company's market value and 2% of its enterprise value (EV), or 48% of the expected EBITDA for FY2026 [1] Group 2: Business Performance and User Metrics - As of December 28, 2025, Coupang's GMV has grown by 23% year-on-year, which is consistent with the growth rates of 20% observed in October and November 2025, but lower than Naver's 32% growth during the same period [2] - The average daily active users (DAU) showed a weekly increase of 7% from November 30 to December 6, 2025, but experienced declines in subsequent weeks [2] - For Q4 2025, excluding compensation-related expenses, Coupang is projected to achieve revenues of 9.2 billion USD, a 15% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA of 482 million USD, reflecting a 14% growth [2] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - Citi has adjusted its target price for Coupang from 35 USD to 28 USD to reflect more conservative assumptions regarding non-operating items and higher effective tax rates for FY2026-2027 [3] - Despite the stock price having retraced by 14% since November 29, 2025, following the announcement of the affected customer count, the decline exceeds the potential dilution from fines and compensation plans [3] - The company is expected to maintain its strong leadership position in the South Korean e-commerce sector [3]