ATFX：本周热点分析，FOMC会议纪要来袭，黄金站在历史高位的关键抉择点

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's policy signals as the FOMC meeting minutes are set to be released, particularly after gold prices have reached historical highs, making the details of the minutes crucial for short-term sentiment and trend continuation [1] Macroeconomic Environment - The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of a post-cycle phase, with inflation cooling significantly but still above the Fed's 2% target, as core PCE remains around 2.8% and November CPI year-on-year is approximately 2.7%, indicating progress in the disinflation process [2] - The job market is showing signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, and non-farm payrolls adding only about 64,000 jobs, reflecting a slowdown in hiring momentum [2] - Despite a high GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, the market expects a return to normal growth rates in Q4, as rising living costs and the fading of fiscal disturbances lead to a moderation in growth momentum [2] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in the second half of 2025, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.50%–3.75%, but the December meeting signaled a cautious approach to further easing [3] - The minutes from the December meeting are significant in revealing whether the Fed's pause is a cautious response to inflation risks or a strategy to maintain policy flexibility amid weakening data [3] - Notably, three officials opposed the recent rate cut, indicating a rare division within the Fed, with some believing inflation is not stable enough for further easing, while others advocate for larger cuts to mitigate employment downturns, highlighting policy uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is currently in a clear medium-term uptrend, having steadily risen since November along an upward trend line, with previous downward trends effectively broken and converted into medium-term support [5] - Key support levels for gold are identified between 4,328 and 4,305, which coincide with previous consolidation platforms and the upward trend line, while a failure to hold this area could lead to further testing of the second support zone around 4,230 [5] - The upper resistance zone is noted between 4,460 and 4,480, corresponding to previous highs, and if gold can stabilize in this area, it may challenge previous highs and continue its medium-term upward trend [5] Market Sentiment Ahead of FOMC Minutes - Ahead of the FOMC minutes release, gold is in a state of "trend unbroken but entering a digestion phase," where hawkish language emphasizing inflation risks could lead to a downward test of the trend line and support zones, while remaining within the upward structure may be seen as a space for the next rally [6] - Conversely, if the minutes lean dovish, the market may refocus on future rate cuts, allowing gold to stabilize near the trend line and potentially push upward again, with historical high points becoming a central target [6]