全线下跌！钢市价格暴跌10.9%，出口增幅却逆势上涨，释放啥信号

Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is facing a significant downturn, with crude steel production in November dropping by 10.9% year-on-year, marking a historical peak in decline [3] - Despite the production drop, steel exports have paradoxically increased by 8%, indicating a mismatch between domestic demand and export performance [3][5] - The underlying issue is a severe deterioration in domestic steel demand, leading to excess capacity that cannot be absorbed locally, forcing companies to seek overseas markets [5][7] Group 1: Production and Demand Dynamics - China's steel production decline is attributed to a sharp drop in domestic demand, particularly in the construction and infrastructure sectors, which account for 63% of steel consumption [13] - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights that the current situation is not indicative of improved industry conditions but rather a reflection of domestic demand weakness [7][5] - The global steel production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in November, primarily driven by the decline in China's output, while other regions like India and Turkey saw production increases [9][11] Group 2: Export Challenges and Policy Implications - The upcoming EU carbon tariff, set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will impose additional costs on Chinese steel exports, significantly impacting their competitiveness in the European market [18][19] - The EU is also considering reducing steel import quotas by 50% and doubling safeguard tariff rates, which could severely restrict Chinese steel exports [19] - Current export growth is misleading, as it is driven by preemptive actions taken by companies before the implementation of new regulations, rather than genuine demand recovery [15][21] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Shifts - The global steel market is expected to see a slight rebound in demand by 1.3% in 2026, contrasting with a projected 1% decline in Chinese steel demand [27] - The recovery of the Chinese steel industry hinges on the real estate market's rebound, which constitutes over 40% of steel end-demand [33] - Companies are increasingly focusing on high-end and green transformation to enhance product value and reduce reliance on low-end capacity, indicating a strategic shift in response to current challenges [38][40]