欧佩克+将继续坚持“按兵不动”，油价保卫战正式打响？

Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production pause plan during the upcoming meeting, as signs of global oil supply surplus become increasingly evident [1] - The alliance confirmed its policy earlier this month and is likely to reaffirm it in the upcoming meeting scheduled for January 4 [1] - Oil futures have dropped 17% this year, heading towards the largest annual decline since the pandemic in 2020, due to slowing global demand and increasing supply from OPEC+ and its competitors [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks related to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela have had a limited impact on recent price declines, as the market largely ignores developments such as U.S. President Trump's seizure of Venezuelan oil shipments [2] - The U.S. announced enhanced sanctions on major Russian oil companies in October, but this has not reversed the downward trend in oil prices, as the market anticipates minimal reductions in actual export volumes [2] - There is skepticism regarding the scale of oil surplus expected in 2026, with some analysts noting that the IEA has historically underestimated demand growth [2]