迈入数字存款货币时代:稳步发展数字人民币的动态与前景

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to officially launch a new generation of the digital renminbi (e-CNY) on January 1, 2026, transitioning from a cash-based model to a deposit currency model, enhancing the resilience and security of the payment system [1][5][8]. Group 1: Development Progress of Digital Renminbi - The development of digital renminbi began in 2014, with theoretical research and closed testing initiated by the PBOC [2]. - The pilot program for digital renminbi officially started at the end of 2019, initially in cities like Shenzhen and Suzhou, and has since expanded significantly [2]. - By November 2025, digital renminbi had processed 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Adjustment - The need to respond to rapidly evolving digital payment tools and the challenges they pose to central bank monetary control is a primary reason for the adjustment [6]. - There is a necessity to balance the development of digital cash with the risks of financial disintermediation and to ensure the responsibilities of commercial banks are upheld [6][7]. - The adjustment aims to integrate centralized management with decentralized blockchain characteristics, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [7]. Group 3: Content and Feasibility of Adjustments - The action plan outlines a shift from a digital cash model to a digital deposit currency model, with the PBOC providing technical support and regulatory oversight [8]. - The dual-layer operational framework will be optimized, where the central bank issues the currency and designated operating institutions manage wallet services for individuals and non-financial enterprises [9][12]. - The digital renminbi will be treated as a commercial bank liability, allowing for interest payments on wallet balances, thus enhancing user incentives [14][21]. Group 4: Technological Choices - The digital renminbi will be based on an account system, leveraging the advantages of existing banking infrastructure while incorporating smart contract technology for enhanced functionality [16][17]. - Blockchain technology will be utilized to ensure security and traceability in transactions, particularly in complex financial scenarios [18]. Group 5: Financial Regulation - The PBOC will establish a management committee for digital renminbi to oversee operations and ensure system security and continuity [19]. - A separation of management and operational functions will be implemented to enhance regulatory effectiveness while fostering innovation [19]. Group 6: Strategic Confidence and Development - The steady development of digital renminbi is seen as a necessary response to external pressures and a means to strengthen national strategic confidence [20]. - The transition from M0 to M1 and M2 for digital renminbi aims to enhance its usability and integration into the broader financial system, supporting macroeconomic stability [21][22].

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