利空因素主导 元旦后柴油行情或弱势运行

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices are experiencing a downward trend in December, influenced by bearish market sentiment, while gasoline prices remain stable due to pre-holiday stocking demands [1] Supply Factors - In January, domestic refined oil supply is expected to see a slight increase, with major and local refineries anticipating higher production levels. Yunnan Petrochemical plans to resume operations mid-January, and overall refinery operating rates are expected to rise slightly [1] Demand Factors - Gasoline consumption is expected to improve due to increased private car travel during the New Year holiday, while diesel consumption is projected to decline as outdoor industries and construction activities slow down ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - Gasoline export plans for January are set at 486,000 tons, a significant increase of 82.02% month-on-month, while diesel exports are planned at 354,000 tons, a decrease of 10.61% [2] Cost Factors - The global crude oil market is in a low-demand season, with weak demand expected to persist. Despite OPEC+ halting production increases for Q1 2026, the oversupply situation is likely to worsen. The geopolitical landscape remains unpredictable, which could impact short-term oil prices [3] Market Sentiment - There is a positive shift in replenishment sentiment for gasoline due to improved consumption expectations, while diesel demand continues to decline, leading to a predominantly bearish market outlook [4] Price Trends - In January, international crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, impacting market sentiment. Gasoline prices are likely to see slight increases due to pre-holiday stocking, while diesel prices are expected to decline due to oversupply and reduced demand [5]