印尼拟于2026年减产，推动镍价升至九个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government signals a supply cut to boost nickel prices, pushing prices to their highest level since March this year [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia plans to reduce nickel production by 2026 to better match market demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [1][5] - The supply cut is a direct response to the current supply-demand imbalance, as Indonesia has significantly expanded its production capacity over the past decade [5] - The government has the ability to control supply through tightening mining quota issuance, indicating both willingness and capability to intervene in the market [5][6] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite recent price rebounds, nickel remains one of the weaker performers on the London Metal Exchange this year due to ongoing weak demand from the battery industry [4][5] - The rise of alternative battery chemistries, such as lithium iron phosphate, has led to disappointing demand for nickel, which is used in both stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries [4][5] - High inventory levels have been a major obstacle to nickel price recovery, exacerbated by continuous increases in Indonesian production despite low prices [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Indonesia's production policy is now a key variable determining nickel price trends for the coming year, with any changes having systemic impacts on the global supply chain [6] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Indonesian government's announcements regarding mining quota details to assess the execution and scale of the production cut plan [6]