国科军工(688543)：深耕弹药和特种固发动力 外贸打开长期空间

Investment Highlights - The company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of 70.61 yuan, corresponding to a 50x P/E for 2026, due to its unique position as a core supplier of guided equipment and ammunition systems [1] - The company is backed by Jiangxi Provincial Military Industry Holding Group and has a diverse product range including guided equipment, solid rocket engine power modules, and ammunition systems, which are scarce in the market [1] - Revenue is expected to grow by 15.8% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.204 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 41.3% to 199 million yuan [1] - Global defense spending is projected to increase by 9.4% in 2024, reaching 2.7 trillion USD, with guided and ammunition equipment being key focus areas [1] Production and Trade Development - The company has received a contract worth 466 million yuan for a foreign trade product engine, indicating potential for long-term growth in special trade [2] - The company is gradually releasing production capacity from its specialized production lines, enhancing production efficiency [2] - The company is optimistic about the growth of guided and ammunition equipment, driven by increased foreign trade demand and ongoing model research and capacity expansion [2] Potential Catalysts - Potential catalysts include exceeding order expectations and faster-than-expected expansion progress [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of 1.10 yuan in 2025 and 1.41 yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.8% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The current valuation corresponds to a 43x P/E for 2026, with a target price of 70.61 yuan reflecting a potential upside of 18% [4]