2025年摩经济形势总体向好，贸易赤字进一步扩大

Core Insights - Morocco's economy is projected to close 2025 with strong domestic demand, ongoing investment activities, and an expanding trade deficit [1] Economic Performance - Household consumption remains robust, with a low inflation rate of -0.3% as of November [1] - Remittances from overseas Moroccans have increased, contributing to rising consumer credit [1] - The third quarter saw the creation of 220,000 new jobs [1] - Government investment spending has increased, with equipment spending growing by 16.9% as of the end of November [1] - Foreign direct investment has improved, with investment amounts increasing by 28.2% as of the end of October [1] Sectoral Developments - Agricultural production is expected to benefit from favorable climate conditions for the 2025-2026 season, with dam water storage reaching 34.7% as of December 24 [1] - Agricultural exports increased by 7.3% as of the end of October [1] - Industrial activity shows mixed performance, with manufacturing output growing by 2.2% and mining increasing by 7.4% in the third quarter [1] - Electricity generation rose by 6.1% and cement sales increased by 10.6% as of the end of November [1] - The service sector continues to strengthen, with inbound tourism reaching 18 million visitors, a 14% year-on-year increase, and tourism revenue growing by 16.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Despite positive domestic conditions, the trade deficit is under increasing pressure, with exports growing by 2.6% as of the end of October [2] - Key export sectors include phosphates and derivatives (up 16.7%), aerospace products (up 8.3%), and agricultural products and food (up 1.1%) [2] - Imports increased by 9.4%, with a notable decline in energy imports by 4.4% [2] - The trade deficit expanded by 19.6%, with the export coverage ratio dropping to 56.5% [2] - Foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to cover 5 months and 21 days of import needs [2]