超额回报光环褪色、银行业“反击”，私募信贷热潮正在降温

Core Viewpoint - The private credit industry, once distinct for its unique advantages, is increasingly resembling the public credit market, leading to a decline in return rates as banks recover and direct lending institutions invest heavily in retail tools [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The private credit industry's asset size has steadily grown to $2.4 trillion by 2024, with traditional closed-end funds raising $113 billion in the first half of 2025 [2]. - New funding sources, such as perpetual funds like Blackstone's BCRED, are rapidly gaining popularity, raising $48 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for 40% of inflows into traditional institutional funds [2]. - The pursuit of retail funds is expected to continue, with estimates suggesting that individual wealth allocated to private credit could grow nearly fourfold to $1.5 trillion by 2029 [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Market Dynamics - A significant amount of raised capital, amounting to $543 billion, remains uninvested as of the end of 2024, indicating challenges in finding suitable investment opportunities [5]. - The additional premium that direct lending institutions charge over publicly issued bonds is under pressure, having halved in Europe to just over 1 percentage point, and sometimes even lower in the U.S. [8]. - Private credit is becoming a common financing tool in traditional acquisition markets, with borrowers increasingly leveraging competition between markets and lenders [9]. Group 3: Evolving Financing Structures - Direct lending institutions are adapting by offering more flexible loan structures, such as installment loans, to attract borrowers like private equity firms [8]. - Private credit managers are exploring new growth areas, with firms like Blue Owl becoming key players in financing AI assets, while Apollo utilizes its insurance arm to provide tailored financing to higher-rated companies [8]. - The lines between private and traditional credit are blurring, with retail fund growth potentially narrowing the gap and leading to a world of lower returns and higher liquidity [9].