美国加税挡不住订单狂奔：中国成熟芯片，正在悄悄改写全球供应链

Core Viewpoint - The expectation that U.S. tax increases would lead to a significant outflow of chip orders from China is proven incorrect, as global customers are instead rushing to secure production capacity with Chinese factories [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The behavior of global customers indicates a clear trend: in the highly industrialized chip sector, the decision to source is based on the ability to deliver stable supply and competitive costs, with China emerging as a critical player [3][10]. - Approximately 70% of global mature process chip orders are now directed towards China, driven by rational market assessments rather than emotional responses [10]. - The demand for mature process chips, which are essential for various industries, is increasing, highlighting the importance of stable supply and cost sensitivity [6][10]. Group 2: China's Competitive Advantage - China's chip industry has strategically focused on mature process technology rather than solely pursuing advanced chips, which has proven valuable amid rising global demand [8][20]. - The cost advantages of Chinese manufacturers stem from a highly coordinated industrial system rather than mere price wars, reflecting a systemic capability [12][18]. - China's continuous expansion in production capacity has led to reduced fixed costs and improved manufacturing efficiency, contributing to lower chip prices [14][16]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Future Outlook - The competition between the U.S. and China represents a misalignment in development paths, with the U.S. focusing on advanced technologies while China capitalizes on mature processes to build a competitive edge [20][28]. - Mature process chips are not stagnant; ongoing innovations in computing architecture and packaging technologies are enhancing their performance and revenue stability [22]. - The return of experienced engineers to China is indicative of the growing opportunities within the domestic industry, further accelerating technological advancements [24][26]. Group 4: Conclusion - The shift in global order flows is not merely a reaction to policy changes but a result of long-term strategic choices made by the Chinese chip industry, which has gained market trust through time, scale, and engineering capabilities [28][30].