巨亏之下的钢铁行业，不断停产、减人，钢铁工人未来何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of declining domestic steel production in China alongside a surge in steel exports, reflecting the ongoing transformation of China's economic structure and changes in global trade dynamics [1]. Group 1: Domestic Production and Export Trends - In November, China's crude steel production fell by 10.9% year-on-year, marking a significant decline not seen in recent years, indicating low production enthusiasm among steel mills [2][4]. - Conversely, steel exports reached 8.06 million tons in November, an increase of 8.4% compared to the same month last year, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The disparity between falling domestic production and rising exports suggests that excess capacity is being redirected to international markets due to weak domestic demand, particularly from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4][6]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - The global crude steel production in November was 147.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, with the decline primarily attributed to China; excluding China, production in other regions increased by 2.6% [8]. - Emerging markets like India, Turkey, and Vietnam are experiencing rising steel production, indicating a shift in global demand dynamics as China's cooling demand significantly impacts overall global statistics [8][10]. Group 3: European Market Response - Europe is responding to the supply pressure from China with protective measures, including the implementation of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and potential cuts to steel import quotas by up to 50% [10][12]. - These policies have already widened the price gap between locally produced and imported steel, with the price difference reaching approximately $370 per ton, driven more by policy than by genuine demand [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Transformation - The World Steel Association predicts a slight global steel demand growth of 1.3% by 2025, primarily driven by regions like India and ASEAN, while China's demand is expected to continue its slight contraction [16]. - China's steel industry is undergoing structural reforms aimed at high-end, intelligent, and green development, with major companies investing in low-carbon technologies and high-performance steel production [22][24]. - New demand drivers are emerging in sectors such as renewable energy and high-end manufacturing, which are partially offsetting the decline in traditional construction steel demand, necessitating agility in responding to downstream industry upgrades [24].