供应过剩压力山大，本周OPEC+拟按兵不动，维持暂停增产计划

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current production pause plan during the upcoming meeting, responding to global oil supply surplus pressures [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Meeting and Production Plans - OPEC+ will hold a monthly video meeting on January 4, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to reaffirm the decision made in November to pause further production increases until Q1 2026 [1] - The policy confirmed in the early December meeting is anticipated to be reiterated, with ongoing internal consultations [2] - Despite earlier indications of sufficient global oil supply, OPEC+ had decided in April to accelerate the restoration of production, which surprised market traders [6] Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Trends - WTI crude oil prices have dropped by 20% this year, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 [2] - OPEC+ and its competitors have seen a continuous rise in oil supply, while global demand growth has noticeably slowed [2] - Several authoritative institutions, including the International Energy Agency, predict a record supply surplus in the oil market for the coming year [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The global oil market is currently facing multiple intertwined geopolitical risks, including the closure of oil wells in Venezuela due to U.S. sanctions and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine [5] - Tensions have also emerged between OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding support for armed groups in Yemen [5] Group 4: Production Capacity and Challenges - Approximately 1.2 million barrels per day of production capacity remains unrecovered from the earlier production cuts, with some member countries struggling to meet their production commitments [6]