12月会议纪要来袭，美联储内部“鹰鸽大混战”细节即将曝光！

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from the December 9-10 policy meeting is expected to highlight divisions among decision-makers regarding the third consecutive rate cut and signal a potential hold on rates into early 2026 [1] Group 1: Rate Decisions and Divergence - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% faced three dissenting votes, with two from regional Fed presidents who believed a rate cut was unnecessary and one from Governor Milan, who has consistently advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points since joining the Fed in September [1] - Fed Chair Powell noted that the 9-3 vote reflects "broad support" among officials, placing the Fed in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding economic developments [3] - Among the 19 decision-makers, six indicated that a rate of 3.9% would be appropriate by the end of 2025, which is higher than the current post-cut rate [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Outlook - There is significant divergence among decision-makers regarding the direction of rates for the coming year, with some advocating for no cuts while others support one or more cuts [4] - A series of delayed economic data due to government shutdowns tends to support a dovish perspective, although economists caution that the missing and estimated data may be highly questionable [4] - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a relatively mild year-over-year increase of 2.7%, but much of the data was collected during the latter half of the month when retailers were offering holiday discounts [4] - A report indicated that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, but this figure was derived using an unusual method due to the disruption in regular data collection caused by the government shutdown [4]