国信证券：从业绩变脸到价值修复

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the non-linear evolution of ROE growth in A-share IPOs, indicating that companies typically experience a decline followed by a rebound in profitability over an average of 9.32 years post-IPO [1][8][14]. Group 1: Investment Lifecycle and Trends - The "three-step" screening system identifies industries and stocks with long-term investment value by analyzing trends, benchmarking at the macro level, and selecting at the micro level [1][9]. - A total of 1273 stocks, approximately 23% of the sample, exhibited significant U-shaped characteristics in their ROE growth, with 241 identified as potential stocks in the pressure phase and 1032 as performance stocks in the recovery phase [2][12][13]. - The average IPO duration across the market is 12.63 years, with the average inflection point occurring at 6.62 years, which aligns with the identified 8-10 year critical threshold for profitability recovery [14]. Group 2: Industry Performance Analysis - In the pressure phase, industries such as media, utilities, and pharmaceuticals show strong defensive resilience, while in the recovery phase, sectors like power equipment, electronics, and home appliances demonstrate high elasticity in ROE recovery [2][25]. - The banking sector shows a significant proportion of stocks (40%) in the recovery phase, indicating strong profitability recovery certainty and operational stability [18][33]. - The telecommunications and pharmaceutical industries exhibit comprehensive leading advantages across both lifecycle phases, showcasing robust growth resilience [2][25]. Group 3: Micro-Level Stock Selection - The micro-level selection process focuses on identifying stocks within industries that outperform their sector averages, ensuring that selected stocks possess both industry support and superior alpha attributes [3][9]. - Specific stocks such as Guizhou Moutai and Huangtai Wine are identified as potential candidates in the pressure phase, while broader consumer goods have transitioned into the recovery phase, indicating a shift in operational efficiency [26][27][29]. - In the banking sector, banks like Jiangyin Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank are highlighted for their recovery trends that exceed industry averages, while others like China Merchants Bank are still in the pressure phase [33][34].