浙商证券：预计债市整体走势为“短强长弱” 投资者关注焦点转向财政政策

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focused on the fiscal policy's strength and pace, as well as the supply pressure of government bonds, which are the core concerns for the bond market outlook in January [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Expectations - Investors have a neutral outlook on the long-term government bond yield range, indicating a "top and bottom" fluctuation state [2]. - The prevailing expectation in the bond market is "strong short, weak long," reflecting a cautious sentiment towards long-term bonds [2]. - The operational stance of the bond market is neutral, with a predominant view of holding cash and maintaining stable positions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is no strong consensus among investors regarding the direction of the January bond market, with expectations leaning towards "cautiously optimistic, structurally driven" [2]. - Short-term rates are favored due to the benefits from a loose liquidity environment, while long-term rates face caution due to potential fundamental recovery and supply pressure [2]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - Most investors are adopting a neutral operational stance, preferring to wait for price corrections before increasing positions, with a slight decrease in those willing to add positions from 14% in November to 11% [3]. - The focus of bond market investors has shifted to fiscal policy, which is now the primary concern and potential source of volatility [3]. - There is a clear shift in asset preference towards mid- to short-term bonds, with a rising preference for interbank certificates of deposit, while the willingness to allocate to long-term bonds has decreased [3].