Clorox's 5% Yield Looks Solid but One Metric Deserves Attention

Core Viewpoint - Clorox's dividend yield appears attractive at just under 5%, but the stock has declined 37% over the past year, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dividend [1][9]. Dividend Metrics - The annual dividend is $4.92 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.99% [2]. - Clorox has increased its dividend for over 13 consecutive years, with the most recent increase being 1.6% in April 2025 [2]. - The 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for dividends is 2.5% [2]. Cash Flow Analysis - In fiscal 2025, Clorox paid $602 million in dividends against a free cash flow of $761 million, resulting in a free cash flow payout ratio of 79% [3][4]. - The payout ratio was concerning in fiscal 2024, where dividends exceeded free cash flow at 123% [3][4]. - Operating cash flow has shown volatility, with figures swinging from $1.5 billion in fiscal 2020 to $695 million in fiscal 2024, then recovering to $981 million in fiscal 2025 [4]. Debt and Equity Position - Clorox has a total debt of $2.88 billion and cash reserves of $167 million, leading to a net debt of $2.71 billion [5]. - The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 2.4x, which is considered manageable for a consumer staples company [5]. - Shareholder equity has decreased significantly from $908 million in fiscal 2020 to $321 million in fiscal 2025, indicating a trend of paying out more in dividends and buybacks than the company has earned [6]. Management Outlook - CEO Linda Rendle acknowledged near-term challenges but highlighted operational strength, noting a tenth consecutive quarter of gross margin expansion [7]. - CFO Luc Bellet mentioned expected tariff headwinds of about $100 million annually but views this as manageable through sourcing changes and targeted pricing [7]. - Management expressed confidence in the balance sheet and cash flow, suggesting the dividend is secure, although dividend growth has slowed to 1.6% in 2025 compared to historical rates of 5% to 7% [8]. Dividend Safety Assessment - Clorox has a moderate risk rating for dividend safety, with a fiscal 2025 payout ratio of 79% deemed technically sustainable [9]. - However, the previous year's payout ratio of 123% and recent cash flow volatility raise concerns about the dividend's sustainability [9][10].