美经济学家：美国出现了严重战略失误，根本没料到中国会这么强大

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the misjudgments of the United States in economic decision-making, which stem from long-standing arrogance and misinterpretation of the international landscape [1] Group 1: Trade and Economic Competition - The U.S. initially believed it could easily maintain its leading position in trade and technology but has repeatedly faced setbacks in reality [3] - The U.S. underestimated China's ability to achieve comprehensive advancements within the existing rule framework, revealing shortcomings in U.S. strategic planning [4] - The U.S. has historically viewed China as a developing economy needing guidance, but China has instead followed a path suited to its own national conditions, focusing on long-term planning and industrial upgrades [6] Group 2: Industry and Technological Development - In the renewable energy sector, China began systematic investments over a decade ago, while the U.S. only recently started to catch up, resulting in a competitive disadvantage for the U.S. [6] - The electric vehicle industry exemplifies U.S. missteps, as China has built a complete industrial chain, achieving cost control and scale effects, while U.S. companies face supply chain dependencies and high costs [6] - The solar photovoltaic industry demonstrates U.S. strategic misjudgment, with China dominating global production capacity and continuously lowering costs through technological iterations [8] Group 3: Policy and Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has overestimated its control over global value chains, believing that technological barriers could indefinitely block latecomer countries [8] - U.S. trade policies, particularly during the Trump administration, have led to internal contradictions and inflationary pressures, while China has maintained stable growth and improved its export structure [10] - U.S. export controls in the semiconductor sector aimed at limiting China's development have inadvertently accelerated domestic R&D in China, increasing its self-sufficiency [10] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Supply Chain - China leads globally in wind and solar installation capacity, significantly outpacing Western countries due to long-term investments and policy support [12] - The U.S. struggles with supply chain dependencies on Chinese raw materials in the renewable energy sector, hindering its ability to achieve independence [12] Group 5: Global Supply Chain and Economic Governance - The U.S. attempts to relocate production to other countries have highlighted efficiency and cost issues, while China has expanded its partnership network through the Belt and Road Initiative [14] - The article emphasizes that the U.S. needs to reflect on its own model rather than solely blaming others, as China's development illustrates the viability of diversified paths within the framework of fair rule application [14]