Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-30 14:34Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan suggests an overweight allocation to risk assets in January due to the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, which may reduce policy uncertainty and market volatility [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation for January is 50.00% in equities, 35.00% in bonds, and 15.00% in commodities [1] - For January 2026, the suggested equity allocation is 47.50%, with an overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks (10.00%), and U.S. stocks (17.50%), while underweighting European stocks (2.50%) and Indian stocks (2.50%), and maintaining a standard allocation in Japanese stocks (5.00%) [1] Group 2: Rationale for Equity Allocation - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a recommendation to overweight A/H shares due to the upcoming work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may lead to broader fiscal deficits and more aggressive policies [1] - The "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, favoring U.S. stock performance, as the U.S. economy shows resilience despite cooling, with weakening inflation and corporate earnings expectations potentially supporting upward movement in U.S. stocks [1]