当高盛IMF齐声高捧时：关于人民币的“最大陷阱”，已然浮现！

Core Viewpoint - Major Western financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and the IMF, have recently asserted that the Chinese yuan is significantly undervalued and should undergo a substantial appreciation [1][4]. Group 1: Current Context - The timing of these reports coincides with China's record trade surplus, which exceeded one trillion USD earlier this year, highlighting the competitive strength of Chinese manufacturing and exports [5]. - The pressure from Western financial powers is perceived as an attempt to undermine China's manufacturing sector, as they feel threatened by China's economic performance [6]. Group 2: Historical Parallels - The situation draws parallels to Japan's experience in the 1980s, where a forced appreciation of the yen led to a loss of competitive advantage for Japanese exporters and resulted in a prolonged economic stagnation known as the "Lost Decade" [9][10]. - The narrative suggests that the same financial tactics are being employed against China today, aiming to disrupt its economic growth [11]. Group 3: Economic Implications - A rapid appreciation of the yuan could lead to a significant loss of price competitiveness for Chinese exports, resulting in a potential decline in overseas orders and a wave of factory closures and layoffs [14]. - This could trigger a negative feedback loop, causing decreased household income, reduced consumer spending, and possibly leading to deflation [15]. Group 4: Strategic Response - The emphasis is on maintaining control over currency adjustments, ensuring that any changes to the yuan's value are aligned with domestic economic needs rather than external pressures [18]. - The focus should be on strengthening the manufacturing base, fostering technological innovation, and expanding domestic demand to mitigate external financial pressures [21].