Tesla previews a drop in its upcoming Q4 deliveries in unusual move

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has previewed its fourth quarter delivery estimates, indicating a significant drop in deliveries compared to the previous year, which may reflect challenges in the market and the impact of the loss of the EV tax credit [1][3]. Delivery Estimates - For Q4, Tesla's compiled delivery consensus is 422,850 units globally, representing a 15% decline year-over-year [1]. - This figure is lower than Bloomberg's estimate of 445,000 units, which would indicate a 10% drop [2]. - The median estimate reported by Tesla is 420,399 units [2]. Annual Deliveries - For the full year, Tesla's consensus estimates stand at 1,640,752 deliveries, marking an 8% decline compared to 2024, and indicating the second consecutive year of sales declines [4]. - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the Wall Street consensus of over 1.6 million units may be overly optimistic, projecting 1.62 million units based on Q4 assumptions, which implies a 9% year-over-year decline [4]. Market Reactions - Despite the anticipated drop in deliveries, Tesla's stock has gained nearly 14% this year, with a forward P/E ratio exceeding 200 [5]. - Analysts argue that the fundamentals may not significantly impact Tesla's stock price, as it is viewed more as a bet on future technologies like mobility, robotics, and AI rather than traditional automotive metrics [5]. Robotaxi Prospects - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Wedbush express optimism regarding Tesla's robotaxi initiatives, despite the current fleet size being smaller than expected [6]. - The narrative surrounding robotaxi remains strong, with indications of a potential wider rollout following the removal of safety drivers in Austin for internal validation testing [7].