降息扩围长端离场 银行揽存现分化

Core Viewpoint - The banking deposit market is undergoing a significant restructuring driven by a "comprehensive interest rate cut" and the exit of long-term products, leading to a more balanced interest rate landscape across various banking institutions [1][3][4]. Interest Rate Cuts - A widespread interest rate cut began on May 20, 2025, initiated by six major state-owned banks, with reductions in both short-term and long-term deposit rates [3][4]. - The interest rates for various deposit products were lowered, with the 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 1.25% and 1.3%, respectively [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The interest rate cuts have extended to smaller banks, which have adjusted rates across all deposit categories, with some institutions reducing rates by up to 80 basis points [4][5]. - The exit of long-term deposit products is being led by smaller banks, with some institutions removing 5-year fixed deposits from their offerings entirely [4][5]. Net Interest Margin Pressure - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins due to structural changes in financing demand and declining loan rates has pressured banks to lower deposit costs [6][7]. - As of Q3 2025, the average net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, with variations among different types of banks [6]. Changing Deposit Strategies - Banks are shifting their deposit strategies to focus on cost control and optimizing liability structures, moving away from high-interest deposit models [7][8]. - Local banks are increasingly using marketing strategies that emphasize gifts and rewards to attract deposits, while state-owned banks are focusing on optimizing their liability structures [8][9]. Trends in Fund Allocation - There is a noticeable trend of funds moving away from traditional low-yield deposit products towards higher-yield wealth management products, gold, and insurance [9][10]. - The scale of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan by Q3 2025, reflecting a shift in consumer mindset from saving to investing [9]. Future Outlook - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue into 2026, driven by the persistent low-interest rate environment and the appeal of higher-return investment options [9][10]. - Banks may accelerate the introduction of innovative products linked to gold, foreign exchange, or stock indices to attract deposits and enhance liquidity management [10].