白银上演“过山车”行情 产业资本与投机资本激烈博弈

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in silver prices, including a significant drop after reaching a high of $83 per ounce, is attributed to increased margin requirements by CME and a cautious market sentiment among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline of over 10% after hitting a peak, influenced by CME's second increase in margin requirements within two weeks, raising the initial margin for March 2026 contracts to approximately $25,000 [1]. - The commercial net short positions and non-commercial net long positions in silver have been trending downward since June 2025, indicating a decrease in both hedging and speculative interests among market participants [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The surge in silver prices is primarily driven by tight supply and demand dynamics, with visible inventories at historical lows, particularly in London, New York, and Shanghai [2]. - Concerns over tariffs on silver in 2025 have led to a significant increase in COMEX delivery demand, further straining the already limited available inventory [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The market is witnessing a divergence in fund flows, with a decline in non-commercial net long positions since Q3 2025, while commercial net long positions have been rising, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4]. - Despite the current volatility, the long-term outlook for silver remains positive, driven by expectations of liquidity easing and structural shortages in the physical market [5][6]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - Both domestic and international exchanges have raised margin requirements to mitigate excessive speculation in the precious metals market, reflecting concerns over overheating conditions [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted margin ratios and price limits for silver futures contracts, effective from December 30, 2025, to manage market volatility [2].