从热议到封禁，稳定币的2025经历了什么

Core Insights - The year 2025 is marked as a pivotal yet tumultuous period for the global stablecoin industry, with significant developments anticipated as 2026 approaches [2] Legislative Developments in the U.S. - Following Trump's re-election, the stablecoin market is expected to flourish due to his favorable stance on cryptocurrencies [3] - The introduction of the GENIUS Act in February 2025, aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, received bipartisan support and was passed by the Senate Banking Committee [4] - The signing of the GENIUS Act on July 18, 2025, represents the first federal-level regulation of stablecoins in the U.S., alongside the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Act, which collectively aim to bolster the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [4] - As of mid-2025, over 99% of the stablecoin market capitalization is attributed to dollar-pegged stablecoins, with USDT and USDC holding nearly 70% of their reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [4] Industry Reactions and Concerns - The implementation of the GENIUS Act has faced opposition from various banking groups, which have expressed concerns over provisions that could grant competitive advantages to certain institutions [5][6] - The Federal Reserve is exploring reforms to financial accounts to accommodate new business models, including a proposal for a "payment account" to facilitate direct access to the Fed's core payment systems for fintech companies and stablecoin issuers [7] Hong Kong's Legislative Approach - Hong Kong has taken proactive steps by passing the Stablecoin Bill on May 21, 2025, establishing a licensing regime for stablecoin issuers and enhancing regulatory frameworks for virtual asset activities [8] - Despite initial interest, the number of stablecoin license applications in Hong Kong has decreased significantly, indicating potential regulatory hurdles and a cautious approach from the authorities [9] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has clarified misconceptions regarding the licensing process and has faced challenges in aligning its regulations with market expectations [10] China's Regulatory Stance - China's regulatory framework for stablecoins remains largely unchanged since the 2021 directive prohibiting virtual currency trading, despite increased interest in stablecoins due to developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong [12][17] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized its commitment to combating illegal activities related to stablecoins while monitoring global developments [17] - The ongoing discussions around stablecoins in China have led to a cautious approach, with regulatory bodies maintaining a focus on preventing risks associated with virtual currencies [17] Global Trends and Market Dynamics - The global stablecoin market is characterized by a significant dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins, which account for over 99% of the market, raising concerns among other nations about the implications for their currencies [19][20] - The European Union's MiCA regulation, effective December 30, 2024, aims to address the challenges posed by the dominance of dollar stablecoins, although its impact on euro stablecoins has been limited [20] - Japan has approved its first yen-pegged stablecoin, JPYC, but market acceptance has been slow, highlighting the challenges in establishing a robust stablecoin ecosystem [21][22] - The UK is actively developing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, with a focus on ensuring that a significant portion of reserves is held in short-term government bonds [23][24] Market Integration and Future Outlook - The stablecoin market is witnessing increased recognition from capital markets, with major financial institutions engaging in acquisitions and partnerships to enhance their presence in the space [25] - The integration of Web2 and Web3 is accelerating, as traditional payment systems begin to incorporate stablecoin functionalities, indicating a shift towards a more hybrid financial ecosystem [25] - Ongoing infrastructure developments, such as Stripe's launch of stablecoin projects, reflect the competitive landscape between traditional financial entities and emerging blockchain technologies [26]