卡斯特将面临智利增长乏力和财政疲软的经济挑战

Core Viewpoint - Chile's newly elected president, Kast, will face significant economic challenges including weak growth, deteriorating public finances, and a sluggish labor market upon taking office in March 2026 [1] Economic Growth - Chile's economic growth is currently weak, with GDP growth expected to be around 2.5% in 2025, potentially slowing further in 2026, aligning with the central bank's long-term growth forecast of 2% [1] - Long-term economic recovery is viewed as crucial for addressing employment and fiscal issues [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains weak, with an unemployment rate of 8.4% from August to October, marking 34 consecutive months above 8% [1] - Approximately 850,000 individuals are unemployed, with the female unemployment rate nearing 9% [1] Public Finances - Structural deficits persist, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to exceed 42% in 2025, potentially breaching the prudent limit of 45% if not addressed [1] Positive Factors - Inflation has decreased from a peak of 14% in 2022 to 3.4% in November 2023, with expectations to converge to the central bank's 3% target in the first half of 2026 [1] - Copper prices remain strong, exceeding $5 per pound, with future bullish outlooks, potentially leading to record export values surpassing $100 billion in 2025 [1] - The stock market has performed well, with the IPSA index rising 50% this year, surpassing the 10,000-point mark [1] Recommendations for New Government - Analysts suggest that the new government must quickly address the three macroeconomic challenges: slowing growth, structural and cyclical issues in the labor market, and deteriorating public finances [1] - Promoting investment and potential growth is essential to establish a sustainable fiscal foundation [1]