AGOA动荡或使非洲贸易格局重构

Group 1 - The U.S. has initiated a process to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for three years, which is set to expire on September 30, 2025, amid warnings from the House Appropriations Committee about potential strategic vacuums if it lapses [1] - If AGOA expires, African exporters will lose duty-free treatment, with tariffs on some Kenyan textiles potentially rising from 10% to 43%, and certain Ghanaian goods facing tariffs up to 15% [1] - Ghana's non-oil exports under AGOA were approximately $86 million in 2022, but have seen a 45% year-over-year decline in the first half of this year [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding AGOA is undermining U.S. strategic interests in Africa, which is rich in cobalt and platinum group metals essential for U.S. renewable energy and defense industries [2] - The situation highlights the necessity to accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which covers 1.4 billion people and has a market size of $3.4 trillion, as a key pathway for Africa's trade autonomy and long-term growth [2] - AfCFTA has reached agreements on over 92% of tariff items and has operationalized a cross-border payment system (PAPSS) in several countries, but experts suggest that its full effectiveness may take 5 to 10 years to materialize [2]