Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-30 17:57Group 1 - Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow beyond expectations in 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 3.2%, up from 2.5% in 2024, indicating a recovery to pre-pandemic levels [1][8] - The key growth drivers identified are "funds flow" and "logistics," contributing approximately 1.2 and 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively [1][9] - The capital market has seen significant activity, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28.9% in the first 11 months, and Hong Kong's IPO fundraising returning to the top globally for the first time in six years [1][32] Group 2 - For 2026, a positive scenario suggests a GDP growth of 3.0%, driven by continued strength in "logistics" and "funds flow," while "human flow" is expected to remain active due to optimized talent policies and tourism events [2][13] - The logistics sector is anticipated to benefit from reduced tariff uncertainties and strong demand for AI-related products, supporting robust growth in trade and logistics activities [2][21] - The financial sector is expected to remain a key driver of growth, with active capital markets and favorable policies from the Federal Reserve and local government enhancing market conditions [2][30] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of monitoring international geopolitical situations and Federal Reserve policy rhythms, which could impact Hong Kong's economic growth [3][6] - The ongoing transformation of Hong Kong's economy towards a more diversified and multi-polar structure is expected to deepen, enhancing its competitiveness as an international financial center [2][16] - The government is expected to achieve fiscal balance earlier than anticipated, which will provide more room for policy support and economic transformation initiatives [6][16]