超长端债市呈“慢涨快跌”格局

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery due to expectations of a loose monetary environment at the end of the year, although volatility remains high and the market lacks a clear direction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market sentiment has improved, supported by a loose funding environment and year-end allocation expectations, providing short-term bullish opportunities for traders [1]. - The current bond market is characterized by significant volatility, influenced heavily by market sentiment and expectations, particularly as institutions face profit-taking pressures at year-end [1]. - The long-end government bond yields have limited upward space, with the key position for the 10-year government bond yield remaining at 1.85% [3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy is in a wave-like operation phase, with internal momentum recovery being a slow variable, and the economic data showing a structural characteristic of "strong production, weak domestic demand" [3]. - The economic fundamentals are still in a bottoming phase, with increasing pressure on the demand side in the fourth quarter, leading to a weak short-term entity financing demand [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with interbank liquidity expected to maintain a balanced and loose pattern, alleviating concerns about year-end liquidity [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in the scale of central bank purchases of government bonds, as the total net injection of MLF and reverse repos decreases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face significant pressure in 2026, with global economic visibility likely to improve, potentially impacting domestic bond markets negatively [5]. - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to exert pressure on the bond market, with a low likelihood of a repeat of the inflationary trends seen in 2006 or 2017 [5]. - The macro environment's continued warming may lead to a preference for equity markets over bonds, with increasing supply of long-end bonds and limited demand from banks and insurance companies [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to continue its expansionary stance, emphasizing actual spending and structural improvements, with a projected slight increase in the narrow deficit ratio to 4.2% [6]. - Monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions remain options, with a focus on flexible and efficient implementation [6][7]. - The bond market is likely to exhibit characteristics of "top and bottom" with amplified volatility, particularly in the long-end segment, while the central bank's support for year-end liquidity will bolster the mid-short end of the bond market [7].