美联储 12 月会议纪要：通胀仍高于目标，就业下行风险上升

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate moderate growth in the U.S. real GDP this year, with a cooling labor market and wage growth comparable to the same period last year [1] Economic Growth - Economic activity in the third quarter showed robust performance, but the average growth rate for the first three quarters of the year remains moderate, below previous expectations for 2024 [1] - The anticipated government shutdown is expected to negatively impact short-term GDP [1] Labor Market - The labor market continues to cool, with expectations that the unemployment rate will gradually decline [1] - Participants in the meeting generally believe that risks related to the labor market are skewed to the downside [1] Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to face short-term pressure but is projected to return to 2% by 2028, with overall uncertainty remaining high [1] - There is a general consensus among participants that inflation risks are tilted to the upside [1] Future Economic Conditions - It is expected that with improving financial conditions and the gradual reduction of tariff impacts, economic growth will slightly exceed potential levels after 2025 [1]