美联储会议纪要：多数官员支持进一步降息 但政策路径分歧显著

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, indicating that the decision-making process is more complex than the voting results suggest [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, with a voting outcome of 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [1]. - Some officials expressed that the decision to lower rates was delicate, with some indicating they could have supported maintaining the current rate [1]. - The minutes highlighted that due to a government shutdown, key inflation and employment data were missing, complicating the decision-making process [1]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - The minutes indicate a split among officials regarding future rate cuts, with most believing that if inflation decreases as expected, further cuts may be appropriate [2]. - The average expectation among 19 officials is for a 25 basis point cut in 2026, followed by another cut in 2027, bringing the federal funds rate close to 3%, which is considered a neutral position for economic growth [2]. - There is significant disagreement among officials, with six explicitly opposing the December rate cut [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - The minutes reflect internal divisions on whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the economy, with many officials advocating for a more neutral policy stance to prevent significant deterioration in the labor market [3]. - Some officials warned that further rate cuts while inflation remains high could be misinterpreted as a weakening commitment to the 2% inflation target [3]. Group 4: Upcoming Meetings and Data - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, where more economic data will be available, and the nomination for the next Fed chair is likely to be announced [4].