政策门槛已被抬高！美联储会议纪要显示对未来进一步降息持“有条件支持”态度

Core Viewpoint - The latest FOMC minutes reveal a complex internal stance among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, indicating significant divisions on economic outlook and policy direction [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC decided to cut rates for the third and final time in the year, but several officials were close to supporting a pause in rate cuts [1] - Three officials voted against the rate cut, the highest number since 2019, with two advocating for no change and one for a larger cut [1] - The dot plot from December indicates a median forecast of only one 25 basis point cut by 19 policymakers for 2026, with a wide distribution of views [1] Group 2: Forward Guidance and Economic Outlook - The Fed shows a conditional support for further easing, with most participants believing that future cuts may be appropriate if inflation declines as expected, though this consensus is fragile [1] - Officials emphasized that future policy adjustments will depend on data, changes in outlook, and risk balance, raising the threshold for further easing [3] Group 3: Liquidity Management - The Fed has decided to initiate Treasury bill purchases to address rising pressures in the money market, with an average expected net purchase of $220 billion over the next 12 months [2] - Initial monthly purchases are set at approximately $40 billion, with about $38 billion already completed in the current month [2] - Officials noted that this action aims to manage bank reserves and is not related to monetary policy stance or economic stimulus [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Focus - Market reactions to the minutes have been muted, with an 85% probability of the Fed pausing rate cuts in January and nearly a 50% expectation for March [2] - The focus is shifting towards the upcoming rotation of voting seats in the FOMC and the anticipated announcement of the next Fed chair by Trump [3]