Why the Fed could be on hold, volatility and the bull market, 2026 could be big for Waymo

Market Overview - All three major indices are in the red, with the Dow and Nasdaq down about one-tenth of a percent, while the S&P 500 remains mostly flat [1] - Over the past five days, the S&P 500 has seen a gain of about 0.4%, with expectations for a 1.3% gain to confirm a Santa Claus rally [1] - Commodities show mixed results, with gold reversing a selloff and silver experiencing its largest drop in five years before gaining momentum [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal a split among officials regarding rate cuts, with some favoring cuts due to job market concerns while others prefer to hold rates steady due to inflation worries [2][4] - Fed officials expect inflation to remain somewhat elevated in the near term, with concerns about tariffs potentially impacting consumer prices [3] - The job market is anticipated to stabilize, but uncertainty remains due to delays in official government data [4] Investment Strategies for 2026 - Optimism for 2026 is driven by anticipated stimulus, rate cuts, and strong profit momentum, suggesting a continued bull market [10][11] - Financials and consumer discretionary sectors are viewed as attractive due to expected economic stability and deal-making activity [21] - International investments are recommended as U.S. investors may have underweighted this area, with potential benefits from a weaker dollar and fiscal reforms in Europe and Japan [20] Oracle's Position - Oracle's stock has dropped approximately 30% this quarter, facing risks related to its partnership with OpenAI, which is reportedly losing around $12 billion a quarter [25][27] - Concerns about Oracle's earnings growth stem from nonrecurring items, with core operating income growing at a respectable 12-15% [29] - Oracle's credit spreads are widening due to increased capital expenditures, raising concerns about its financial health [31] AI and Technology Sector - The AI sector remains a focal point, with companies like Nvidia in advanced talks to acquire AI startup AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion [49] - The AI trade has slowed, but the overall market has held steady, indicating resilience beyond tech stocks [10] - Concerns about AI valuations being too high are prevalent, but the market is expected to continue benefiting from profit growth [15] Space Sector Developments - The space sector is evolving beyond launches to focus on data, connectivity, and infrastructure, with companies like Planet Labs leveraging AI for data analysis [39] - Global Star is enhancing connectivity through satellite technology, partnering with Apple for improved services [42] - Intuitive Machines is positioned for growth with upcoming projects related to lunar exploration and satellite manufacturing [45][47]