单月每吨上涨近千元！强预期下，棉花行情能走多远？

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures market is experiencing a strong rally, with Zheng cotton futures breaking through key resistance levels, driven by strong expectations of reduced cotton production and supported by supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Zheng cotton futures have seen a price increase of nearly 1,000 yuan per ton since December, outperforming U.S. cotton [1]. - The market's bullish sentiment is largely due to expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, confirmed by a recent meeting of the Xinjiang Cotton Industry Development Leadership Group [1]. - The current supply-demand balance in the cotton market is tight, with a significant reduction in import ratios and low carryover stocks, preventing a loose supply situation [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains resilient, with retail sales of clothing and textiles reaching 154.2 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2]. - Despite a slight decrease in operating rates among midstream textile enterprises, the demand for yarn remains strong, indicating manageable inventory pressures [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Comparisons - The market is characterized by a coexistence of strong expectations and weak realities, with rising cotton prices exceeding processing costs for ginning factories, leading to some hedging pressures [3]. - The seasonal off-peak period is affecting downstream cotton yarn prices, which are struggling to keep pace with rising cotton prices, potentially impacting profit margins for yarn manufacturers [3]. - In contrast to Zheng cotton's strength, U.S. cotton prices remain stagnant due to a lack of sufficient driving factors, leading to an expanding price gap between domestic and international cotton [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, driven by a combination of strong expectations and realities, reducing the likelihood of a reversal into bearish territory [4]. - There are expectations for favorable policy adjustments, particularly regarding cotton subsidies aimed at enhancing quality, with the target price subsidy policy set to undergo changes in 2026 [4]. - Overall, the market sentiment remains optimistic in the short term, with medium to long-term projections indicating potential upward price movement supported by supply reduction expectations and resilient demand [4].